We’re delighted to introduce our eight Transformational Trends for 2024.
Each year, our team of business futurists sets the top macrotrends that stand out as key for brands, businesses and retailers.
As we believe those macrotrends are critical in the short and mid term, we closely track and measure their evolution every quarter and regularly update our clients with reports highlighting watch outs and opportunities.
Based on GDR’s Foresight Framework that monitors the big shifts and macro-trends across Planet, Culture, Economy and Self, Transformational Trends 2024 will help you focus on what matters – from AI and climate tech to non-linear retail models, asset culture and the wonder economy.
Drivers
We have identified the six global forces shaping our Transformational Trends this year. While these macro forces have been impacting all kinds of industries for some time now, what’s unique about our current times is that we are in the midst of an era of polycrisis:
“A global polycrisis occurs when crises in multiple global systems become causally entangled in ways that significantly degrade humanity’s prospects. These interacting crises produce harms greater than the sum of those the crises would produce in isolation, were their host systems not so deeply interconnected.” - The Cascade Institute, 2022
Climate Anxieties
Our climate issues have shifted from urgency to emergency, with overconsumption and human-driven exploitation of the environment leading to a scarcity of resources, food and institutional support globally.
Economic Uncertainty
Globally, many people in developed markets were already struggling, due to stagnant wages, rising expenses and growing socioeconomic inequality. Pairing this with slow recovery following the pandemic means that economic uncertainty will continue. The IMF reveals that most countries aren’t likely to return to target inflation until 2025.
Democracy in Flux
Some two billion people in 60 countries will go to the polls in 2024 (Eden McCallum, 2023). Democracies around the world will hold over 60 elections this year, a number that won’t be reached again until 2048, according to US think tank the Integrity Institute. The results of these elections could shape geopolitical relationships for decades to come.
Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical tensions continue to brew due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, which has the potential to turn into a wider regional conflict. This is having an immense ripple effect on the CPG industry thanks to trading halts and supply chain issues.
Tech Growing Pains
AI will continue to dominate headlines in 2024, with AI-based tech stocks soaring at least 25%, according to analyst Dan Ives. This will be the year that AI providers attempt to transition expensive generative AI systems to profitable business models. This will mean overcoming day-to-day challenges of working with AI, including hallucinating chatbots, chip shortages, copyright issues and bias.
Mental Health Epidemic
Across the world, health service professionals have been warning of a growing mental health crisis. The World Health Organisation declared loneliness as a global health concern in November 2023, with a 13% rise in mental health conditions in the last decade.
Explore the trends
Reclaiming Trust
The Climate Divide
The Great Reset
The Wonder Economy
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